HIGHER EMISSION CUT TARGETS NEEDED TO MEET 2 DEGREE LIMIT

     Nusa Dua, Bali, Feb. 23, 2010 (ANTARA) - Gas emission cut pledges listed in the Copenhagen Accord are likely not enough if the world wants to limit two degree rise of global temperature, according to UNEP.
      There were still opportunities to increase the targets and countries needed to define longer target than 2020, said United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Executive Director Achim Steiner, here on Tuesday.
       Countries will have to be far more ambitious in cutting greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to effectively curb a rise in global temperature at two degrees Celsius or less, according to a new greenhouse gas modeling study based on the estimates of researchers at nine leading centers compiled by UNEP.

      The experts suggested that annual global greenhouse gas emissions should not be larger than 40 to 48.3 Gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 2020 and should peak sometime between 2015 and 2021.
       "Such a path offers a `medium` likelihood or at least a 50/50 chance of keeping a global temperature rise at below two degrees C," said the UNEP report launched on the sidelines of the Simultaneous Extraordinary Meetings of the Conferences of the Parties (ExCOPs) to the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions being held at the Bali International Convention Center, Nusa Dua, February 22-24, 2010.
        The new study has analyzed the pledges of 60 developed and developing economies.
        The pledges recently submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) following the UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen last December 2009.
       "The expected emissions for 2020 range between 48.8 to 51.2 GT of CO2 equivalent based on whether high or low pledges will be fulfilled," said the report entitled "How Close Are we to the Two Degree Limit?".

Meanwhile, emissions in 2020 needed to be between 40 Gt and 48.3 Gt in order to meet the 2 degree C aim in 2050, the report noted.

Thus even with the best intentions, the gap would be between 0.5 and 8.8 Gt of CO2 equivalent per year, amounting to an average shortfall in emission cuts of 4.7 Gt.

If the low end of the emission reduction pledges are fulfilled, the gap would be even bigger, namely 2.9 Gt to 11.2 Gt of CO2 equivalent per year, with an average gap of 7.1 Gt, said the report.

"There are clearly a great deal of assumptions underlying these figures, but they do provide an indication of where countries are and perhaps more importantly where they need to aim," Achim Steiner said.

UNEP also officially launched the UNEP Year Book 2010, on the eve of UNEP`s Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum, which is expected to be officially opened by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Nusa Dua, on Wednesday (Feb. 24).

The Year Book estimates that investing US$22 billion to $29 billion in Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) could cut global deforestation by 25 percent by 2015.

On biodiversity, the Year Book emphasizes that ecosystem management, of which biodiversity is the building block, has an important role to play in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

According to the latest Red List, some 17,291 species out of 47,677 assessed are under threat. They include 21 percent of all known mammals, 30 percent of all known amphibians, 12 percent of all known birds, 28 percent of reptiles, 37 percent of freshwater fishes, 70 percent of plants and 35 percent of invertebrates.

The UNEP Year Book will be presented to around 100 environmental affairs ministers expected to attend the 11th Special Session of the UNEP Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum.

(T.f001/A/HAJM/20:03/H-YH)
(T.F001/A/F001/A/H-YH) 23-02-2010 20:34:11